2009 Sun Belt Tournament Preview

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/03/2009 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 33rd-annual Sun Belt Conference Tournament, which includes all 13 members, will begin at campus venues on Wednesday, before moving to Summit Arena for the final three rounds.

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans won the East and West Divisions, respectively, with identical 15-3 records. The Hilltoppers though, swept the Trojans during the regular season and were awarded the top seed in the tournament. Troy finished slightly behind WKU and UALR at 14-4, so it received the No.3 seed. The top three seeds earn a bye in the first round, while the rest of the league must battle for the right to move on to Hot Springs for the quarterfinals.

The North Texas Mean Green claimed the fourth seed with an 11-7 finish and will host 13th-seeded Florida Atlantic, which went just 2-16 in league play. The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders and South Alabama Jaguars both had 10-8 league records and after the tie-breaker scenario was worked out, it was the Raiders who landed the fifth seed. MT will take on 12th-seeded Arkansas State, which finished 5-13, while the sixth-seeded Jaguars will entertain the 11th- seeded New Orleans Privateers after their 6-12 showing. The UL-Monroe Warhawks also recorded a 6-12 ledger, but owned the tie-breaker with New Orleans and were given the 10th seed. The Warhawks will clash with the Denver Pioneers, who earned the seventh seed with an even 9-9 performance. The UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns and Florida International Golden Panthers both ended with 7-11 records, but tie-breaker went to the Cajuns and they get to host the Panthers in the first round.

The ninth-seeded Panthers versus the eighth-seeded Cajuns are one of five first round games on tap for Wednesday. In league games, ULL went 6-3 at home compared to 1-8 on the road, so it was important that the Cajuns won the tie- breaker with FIU in order to host this bout. ULL has had great success in this event, going 24-12 all-time and capturing five titles. FIU, on the other hand, is just 5-9 lifetime in the tourney and is in search of its first championship.

The 13th-seeded Owls bring a five-game losing streak to Denton, where they will take on the fourth-seeded Mean Green in the first round. FAU is 0-17 on the road this season, while North Texas owns an 11-4 mark at home. The Mean Green won its lone title in this tourney in 2007, and the Owls have gone 2-2 in their only two appearances.

The fifth-seeded Blue Raiders welcome the 12th-seeded Red Wolves to Murfreesboro for a first-round match up on Wednesday. MT won the lone meeting with ASU during the season and has gone 6-3 in conference home games. The Blue Raiders have posted a 10-8 mark in this tourney, including a 67-57 loss to Western Kentucky in the finals last season. ASU won its lone title in 1999, but it enters the postseason riding a lengthy nine-game slide.

After earning the top seed last season, the Jaguars had to settle for the sixth spot and a first-round home game against 11th-seeded New Orleans this year. USA is one of the most decorated teams in the SBC, as it has won the tourney title on five occasions, most recently in 2006. The Privateers claimed their second championship in 1996, but they most likely won't get past the first round this season considering their 0-9 record on the road in league games.

The seventh-seeded Pioneers and 10th-seeded Warhawks will meet in Colorado in first-round action on Wednesday as well. Denver boasts an 11-3 home ledger, while ULM sports a poor 2-11 road mark. Neither team has won a title in this event, but the Pioneers did reach the finals in 2005, losing out to ULL.

Top-seeded WKU will start off quarterfinal round play on Sunday, as it awaits the winner of the ULL/FIU matchup. The Toppers defeated MT in their finale to wrap up the SBC regular-season title, the program's 41st league championship (regular season and tournament titles). WKU won its unprecedented sixth SBC Tournament title last season as a third seed and is 34-20 all-time in this event.

Muck like WKU, second-seed UALR will be awaiting the arrival of its quarterfinal round opponent at Summit Arena on Sunday. The Trojans will face off against the survivor of the ULM/Denver contest. UALR recorded a school- record 15 SBC wins this season on its way to the program's fourth West Division title in six years. The Trojans also reached the 20-win plateau for the second straight season, a feat they hadn't accomplished since the 1988-89 and 1989-90 campaigns. UALR though, is still looking for that elusive first title despite winning 15 games in this tourney.

The quarterfinal round will conclude with third-seeded Troy taking on either New Orleans or South Alabama on Sunday. The Trojans ripped off wins in 12 of their last 13 outings, although a heart-breaking, 87-86, loss to FIU on February 19th ultimately cost them a share of the league crown. Still, the run pushed Troy to 19-11 overall, marking its best record since the 2003-04 season.

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Big East Conference odds

Work left to do: Villanova, Syracuse, DePaul, West Virginia, Providence

Notre Dame and Louisville appear to have done enough to make the move, so we'll make them locks. The Cardinals, despite a modest RPI, are trending way up and have clinched at least a tie for third in the Big East, which should be more than enough with their pair of big road wins. Villanova got back to .500 and gets back to more solid footing. Syracuse got a very important road win and crippled a fellow contender in the process. West Virginia's fate could be in its hands Tuesday at Pitt.

Work left to do:

Villanova [18-9 (7-7), RPI: 21, SOS: 5] Pounded Rutgers to get back to .500. If Cats can get their last two (at UConn, vs. Syracuse), that should be enough with strong computer numbers and a host of wins away from The Pavilion. The Cats have beaten Texas and swept the Big 5 (never easy in Philly), but have a couple of losses to bubble teams (Xavier, Drexel), too. I still think they'll be OK, possibly even at 8-8.

Syracuse [20-8 (9-5), RPI: 53, SOS: 62] History says 10 wins will be plenty, but it might be hard for the Orange to get that last one with a final two vs. G'town, which is trying to win the league title, and at Villanova, which will be desperate for a W. The relative lack of nonconference heft and the weak computer numbers are still concerns, but the Orange have won four in a row and got a very, very big win at Providence on Saturday.

DePaul [16-12 (8-7), RPI: 54, SOS: 18] Beat Cincy and should get past South Florida to get to 9-7, but then what? They have beaten Kansas and Cal (right after the DeVon Hardin injury) earlier this season, but also have lost to Bradley and Purdue, among others. They'll likely need a couple of BE tourney wins, too, but we'll see ...

West Virginia [19-7 (8-6), RPI: 58, SOS: 125] The game at Pitt on Tuesday night could decide the Mountaineers' fate (barring a deep tournament run). They can still get to 9-7 in the Big East without it by beating Cincinnati, but the nine wins would be against UConn, Villanova, St. John's, South Florida, DePaul, Rutgers, Seton Hall twice and the Bearcats. Beating bubble foes is fine, but where's the beef? Outside of beating PG-less UCLA in nonconference play (still a top quality win), there's not a lot to fall back on (besides maybe NC State). WVU vs. Syracuse would be an interesting debate, as the teams don't play in the Big East regular season. WVU has the best win, but Cuse has played the much better schedule.

Providence [17-10 (7-7), RPI: 70, SOS: 33] The Friars likely saw their at-large hopes die at home in the four-point loss to Syracuse, barring an unexpected run to the Big East semis or more. The RPI, bad already, won't be helped by playing St. John's and South Florida in the final two league games.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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