Boilermakers visit Spartans in clash of ranked Big Ten foes

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/08/2009 - East Lansing, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In a game that was supposed to be for the Big Ten title, the 19th-ranked Purdue Boilermakers battle the eighth-ranked Michigan State Spartans in a less meaningful matchup at the Breslin Center today. This game was designed for the top two teams in the conference to clash for the regular season championship, but it didn't work out that way. Instead, Purdue dropped a couple of games down the stretch and MSU used a four-game winning streak to win the outright title.

The Boilermakers meanwhile, still have something to play for, as they are trying to lock up sole possession of second place with a win today. Purdue could have accomplished that feat on Wednesday, but was instead knocked off by Northwestern, 64-61. Despite the loss, Purdue is already assured a first-round bye in the upcoming league tourney and that is certainly a positive.

As for MSU, it defeated Indiana, 64-59, on Tuesday to secure its fifth regular-season Big Ten Championship under head coach Tom Izzo and its firs outright title since 1999. The Spartans are a healthy 24-5 overall and 14-3 within the conference and are making a strong push towards a No.1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

MSU and Purdue are meeting for the 106th time today, with the Boilermakers holding a 62-43 lead in the rivalry. The Boilermakers knocked off MSU, 72-54, earlier this season, but the Spartans have won the last eight meetings between the schools at the Breslin Center.

The Boilermakers made just 40.8 percent of their attempts from the floor compared to a 49.1 percent shooting performance by Northwestern, as they were upended on Wednesday. Purdue, which was outscored 36-26 in the second half, received 14 points from both E'Twaun Moore and Keaton Grant in the setback. JaJuan Johnson contributed 11 points, and Robbie Hummel had eight and six boards in the loss. On the season, Moore leads Purdue in scoring at 14.0 ppg and he is also grabbing 4.9 rpg and dishing out 2.9 apg. Johnson turns in 13.2 ppg and 5.9 rpg, while Hummel adds 12.4 ppg and a team-best 6.7 rpg to the lineup. As a whole, Purdue has thrived on defense, holding opponents to a mere 58.9 ppg and just 38.9 percent shooting from the field.

The Spartans knocked down 51.2 percent of their field goal tries and 5-of-11 three-point chances, as they clinched the outright title with a win over Indiana on Tuesday. MSU also went 15-of-22 at the foul line, in addition to holding a 29-22 edge on the glass. Kalin Lucas led the charge with 15 points and five assists, while Raymar Morgan had 14 points and seven rebounds. On the season, Lucas paces the Spartans in scoring at 14.6 ppg and he has also been in charge of setting up his teammates, handing out a team-best 4.6 apg. Morgan checks in with 11.4 ppg and 5.8 rpg for MSU, which is outrebounding foes by a healthy 9.8 rpg on the season.

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Betting Football

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.