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03/19/2009 - Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dustin Brown scored with 35 ticks remaining in overtime and the Los Angeles Kings rallied for three goals in the final 15 minutes, erasing a two-goal deficit for the 3-2 win over Boston at TD Banknorth Garden.
Michal Handzus got the comeback started with a power-play goal and Drew Doughty forced the extra frame, lighting the lamp with 1:36 left in regulation
Jonathan Quick made 24 saves and survived a pair of Boston power-play opportunities late in the third to pick up the victory for LA, which won on the road for the first time since beating Minnesota on February 24 and had dropped six straight as the guest.
The Kings kicked off a season-high six-game road trip, pivotal to them making the playoffs as they came into play Thursday in the 13th position. Doughty also had an assist while Wayne Simmonds had two helpers for LA, which had dropped three straight.
Mark Recchi and Matt Hunwick got the goals for Boston, which has just three wins in its last 10 games.
Tim Thomas blanked the Kings for nearly 50 minutes before wilting under LA's 38-shot barrage in the loss.
Aaron Ward was whistled for hooking eight minutes into the third and LA finally breached the scoreboard with a power-play marker as Handzus was able to bat a loose puck in front past a sprawled Thomas following the initial save of a Simmonds wrister.
The Kings in turn handed the B's a power play when Kyle Quincey took a tripping minor at 11:42 and again after Sean O'Donnell was called for hooking with 5:04 to go.
LA killed off both infractions and remained on its heels for much of the third, but Doughty led a rush the other way following a Quick save and ended up with the equalizer with 1:36 on the clock.
Doughty dished to Derek Armstrong on the left wing at the blueline and headed for the net. Armstrong put on the brakes and hit Simmonds in stride for a shot from the slot that went off the right post and Doughty was in position to slam home the rebound, forcing an extra session.
Brown cut across the slot late in OT and hit O'Donnell with a pass on the left wing. O'Donnell gave it right back to Brown in the low slot and he sent the puck past the outstretched glove of Thomas for the game-winner.
The aptly named Quick was just that, robbing Blake Wheeler on a breakaway chance late in the first to keep the game scoreless.
However, Quick couldn't get to a Hunwick one-timer in front off a Michael Ryder feed a short time later as Boston took the 1-0 lead with 5:19 left in the first.
The Bruins used a series of pin-point passes to take a 2-0 advantage at 3:48 of the middle stanza as Chuck Kobasew forechecked behind the net, flicked the disc back to Patrice Bergeron low in the left circle for a cross-ice pass to Recchi and the easy score.
Game Notes
The Bruins are 4-2 with a tie in the last seven meetings with Los Angeles...LA was 1-for-3 with the man advantage while Boston ended 0-for-4 on the power play...It was Brown's 24th goal of the season...The Bruins are 24-6-6 as the host this year and had won their last three on home ice...The Kings are 14-16-2 as the visiting team this season.
<< Harris helps Michigan hold off Clemson
Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Manny Harris finished with 23 points, seven
rebounds and six assists, as the Michigan Wolverines, after an 11-year
absence from the NCAA Tournament, advanced into the second round of the
South R
<< Abrams hits eight from downtown to lead Texas over Minnesota
Greensboro, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A.J. Abrams hit four consecutive three-
pointers in a key second-half stretch and finished with 26 points, leading
Texas to a 76-62 win over Minnesota in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
Abra
<< 'Nova survives early scare to down American
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dante Cunningham and Dwayne Anderson each
scored 25, and third-seeded Villanova rallied from a 14-point second-half
deficit to top a tough American University team, 80-67, in an East Region
first-r
<< San Jose adds midfielder Elliott
San Jose, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Jose Earthquakes signed midfielder
Simon Elliott, the Major League Soccer team announced on Thursday.
"We have always known that Simon was a quality player," 'Quakes General
Manager of Socc
Panthers snap skid, top Toronto to stay in playoff hunt >>
Sunrise, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Stephen Weiss had a goal and an assist to help
the Florida Panthers snap an ill-timed four-game losing streak with a 3-1 win
over the Toronto Maple Leafs at BankAtlantic Center.
Ville Peltonen and Richard Z
Ovechkin notches goal No. 50 as Caps down Bolts >>
Tampa, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Alex Ovechkin tallied his 50th goal of the season
and Mike Green scored twice as the Southeast Division-leading Washington
Capitals scored three times in the third period to defeat the Tampa Bay
Lightni
Spezza paces red-hot Senators past struggling Canadiens >>
Ottawa, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jason Spezza scored twice and picked up an
assist, as the Ottawa Senators clipped the Montreal Canadiens, 5-4, at
Scotiabank Place.
Daniel Alfredsson, Nick Foligno and Jarkko Ruutu also tall
Sharks LW Clowe out following surgery >>
San Jose, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - San Jose Sharks left wing Ryane Clowe
underwent what the team called a minor procedure on Wednesday and will miss at
least a week with a lower body injury.
Clowe is expected to be available for posts
American Idol Betting Odds: Season 6
The online gambling websites are in the process of deciphering each American Idol contestant and his or her chances of winning Season 6 to come up with the early American Idol betting lines.
Tim Dalton of MySportsbook.com has been locked away in a soundproof room coming up with all the latest tallies, we are told. "American Idol has become one of the most significant betting events of the year," claims Jack Black of MySportsbook.com. "Last year, millions were bet during the season across the globe, not just in America.It's tough early on since we really do not have a glimpse as to how well each of these individuals will perform solo on a week-to-week basis. It's like Week 1 of the NFL. Pre-season means nada!
We do know the 24 finalists however.
Sanjaya Malakar is the young man whose sister failed to make it into the Top 24. He's very low key but - unless he totally flubs - will probably win over the young girlie vote for a few weeks anyway. He's too young to go all the way, according to Payton O'Brien.
Brandon Rogers - Who?
Phil Stacy is the military guy who missed his daughter's birth because of the Memphis audition. He should go a good distance.
Chris Sligh - He's got the humor and in many ways he's the Anti-American Idol much like last year's winner Taylor Hicks was. And this is why he'll probably get pretty far in this competition. He's chubby, white with a big curly afro....but more importantly, a great voice! People love "real", not "real cute" to go all the way.
"Blake Lewis should go far because of his uniqueness and looks. He's the boy next store with a twist - he beat boxes. But on top of this, he's a great singer, and I adore him," Payton O'Brien relayed.
A talented beat-boxer Blake Lewis was a hit during the group sing in Hollywood but Simon explained that this is a singing contest just before he told him he was “in.”
Paul Kim has caught our own roving reporter, Jenny Woo's eyes.
"I love the fact that there is a Korean American on the show and he is bound to get more Asians tuning into the show," Woo said from her Miami Beach estate. "There has never been a major presence of Asian-Americans on American Idol in the past. He's a hottie with a nice voice so that should help to take him far. Expect heavy betting action from the Asian community."
Sundance Head - He's not perfect, but he's got the personality that will take him through a few weeks, plus he's got the lineage (son of Roy Head - whose 1965 single, "Treat Her Right," hit No. 5 in the charts)
And the others:
Rudy Cardinas
AJ Tabaldo - the 5th time is the charm
Nicolas Pedro
Chris Richardson
Jared Cotter
The girls
"Melinda Doolittle has one of the best voices," says MySportsbook.com Reporter and an acclaimed dancer in her own right, Destiney Lewis. "It is great to see a back up singer step out like she has. The girl needs to gain more confidence but that can also be a positive. I think she will go far."
Alena Alexander - Those tears (she never seems to stop bawling) should get her far.
"Single mom Lakisha Jones I suspect will be a pretty big favorite entering Week 1 of the competition," says Destiny Williams. Jones is an excellent singer and down to earth. "She'll have a wide appeal," echoed O'Brien.
Nicole Trellis - Seems to exert confidence.
Amy Krebs - a powerful singer.
Antonella Barba
Gina Glocksen
Hailey Scanardo
Jordan Sparks
Stephanie Edwards
Leslie Hunt
Sabrina Sloan
MySportsbook.com is offering a 20% signup bonus with an initial deposit (i.e. open your American Idol betting account with $300, receive another $60 in which to bet with).
Last two contestants will be?
1 Male/1 Female +100 (a $10 bet pays $10 plus your initial $10)
2 Males +170 (a $10 bet pays $17 plus your initial $17)
2 Females +130 (a $10 bet pays $13 plus your initial $10)
MySportsbook.com is an online sportsbook accepts Visa Credit Cards and online sportsbook accepts Mastercard Credit Cards for easy American Idol betting lines.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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