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10/06/2009 - Fontana, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Nationwide. Date: Saturday, October 10. Race: Copart 300. Site: Auto Club Speedway. Track: two-mile oval. Start Time: 4:30 p.m. (et). Laps: 150. Miles: 300. Last year's winner: Kyle Busch. Television: ESPN 2. Radio: Motor Racing Network (MRN)/SIRIUS XM Satellite.
Kyle Busch is looking to widen his points lead over Carl Edwards this Saturday at California.
Busch put on a dominating performance last week at Kansas, but after a late- race restart, Joey Logano passed Busch for the lead with four laps remaining. It was the fourth time this season that Logano has taken the lead away from his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate with less than 10 laps to go and then go on to victory.
With his second-place finish, Busch stretched his points lead to 245 with six races to go.
Logano, a four-time Nationwide Series race winner so far this year, will compete at California. The 19-year-old driver has finished third and sixth in his first two races there.
Busch, meanwhile, has won the last two races at California. He was simply unstoppable in last year's fall event there, leading all but six of the 150 laps. Busch briefly gave up the lead on two separate green-flag pit stops. He easily held off Carl Edwards in the final laps for his seventh win of the season.
In February, Busch won the Nationwide race at California several hours after he took the checkered flag for the Camping World Truck Series race there. He became the first driver in NASCAR history to win two national touring races on the same day.
Greg Biffle is the only other driver to win back-to-back Nationwide races at California. Biffle won there twice in 2004.
Matt Kenseth has the most victories at California with four, while Biffle and Busch have won there three times each. Kenseth is not competing in this weekend's race.
"I love this place; I always have," Biffle said. "This weekend is my last Nationwide Series race of the season, and I really want to go out on top."
Fifty teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Copart 300.
<< 49ers meet with Crabtree
Santa Clara, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Francisco 49ers and holdout wide
receiver Michael Crabtree met on Tuesday, trying to end a long impasse.
The 10th overall draft pick from this year was reportedly offered a $20
million co
<< AFC West: Raiders' Russell should be benched
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It doesn't necessarily mean a team is giving up on the
season when the backup quarterback gets promoted because of an ineffective
starter. If Oakland Raiders head coach Tom Cable elects to bench JaMarcus
Russell in favor of B
<< Bobcats pick up option on Augustin
Cleveland, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Charlotte Bobcats have picked up the
third-year contract option on point guard D.J. Augustin.
The team had until the end of the month to exercise the option. Because of
this, the team will pay Au
<< Medalists reach third round at Mid Amateur
Kiawah Island, SC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Michael McCoy and Nathan Smith, the
stroke-play co-medalists, won two matches on Tuesday to move into the third
round of the U.S. Mid Amateur.
McCoy cruised to a 4 & 3 win in the first ro
NFC West: Once again, injuries keeping Seahawks grounded >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's hard to blame members of the Seattle Seahawks for
believing they're experiencing a bad case of deja vu.
An extensive rash of injuries was the driving force behind Seattle's 4-12
record in 2008, a precipitous fall from
NFC South: QB switch doesn't change Bucs' fortunes >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Josh Johnson's first career NFL start couldn't have gotten
off to a more perfect beginning for the young quarterback. The end result,
however, turned out to be more of the same for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Johnson's initi
Yankees choose to open playoffs Wednesday; will face Twins >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Yankees chose to select the
eight-day American League Division Series and will open the playoffs at home
Wednesday against the Central Division champion Twins.
Minnesota beat Detroit, 6-
Alfredsson leads Senators past Leafs >>
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Daniel Alfredsson's goal in the second period
proved to be the difference, as the Ottawa Senators held on to edge the
Toronto Maple Leafs, 2-1, at Air Canada Centre.
Shean Donovan scored the other g
Kurt Warner to start, Matt Leinart to watch
Despite the debate that's swirling , Kurt Warner will remain the starting quarterback for the Arizona Cardinals, coach Dennis Green said today. The Arizona Cardinals are the +7 point underdog at online sportsbook MySportsbook.com for this Sunday's game.
Green's comment came in a statement released by the team following an ESPN report that Green decided that rookie Matt Leinart would replace Warner as starter for Sunday's game at Atlanta.
"Generally talking about the starting lineup is not something we do," Green told the AP. "However, given the speculation that was out there we want to make it clear. We're disappointed after last week, but we still expect to be a playoff football team and we fully expect Kurt Warner to be the quarterback that leads us. That has not changed."
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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